We've all heard it — to avoid ticks, wear long pants and a long-sleeved shirt if you're hiking in tall grass. But do we really need to worry about that in Newfoundland and Labrador?

The prevalence of ticks — or the black-legged tick, to be exact — has been minimal in the province, but that will likely change over time, according to the work being done by graduate student Jacob Westcott and his supervisor Dr. Joe Bowden, a research scientist with the federal Department of Natural Resources and associate professor at Memorial University's Grenfell Campus. Believe it or not, the models created by Mr. Wescott and Dr. Bowden take us up to the year 2100.

Using tick records within Canada and the United States between 2017 and 2022 (from eTick and iNaturalist), Mr. Wescott was able to produce "robust, ensemble of ecological niche models."

Of course, the primary instigator is climate change.

"Climate change rapidly drives species range dynamics, prompting many terrestrial organisms to shift northward to higher latitudes and forcing new species-environment and species-species interactions," said Mr. Westcott. "The blacklegged tick has historically been endemic to the United States but is establishing a persistent population in Canada, potentially exposing people to Lyme disease."

 

Key variables in his analysis were temperature, precipitation, biomass production, length of the growing season, climate moisture index, and the number of yearly degree days.

Mr. Westcott's findings highlight the invasive potential of the black-legged tick, with implications for public health and changing ecosystem dynamics.

At a public participation level, eTick is a public platform for image-based identification and population monitoring of ticks in Canada. If you find a tick on yourself or a pet, take a photo, upload it, and scientists like Dr. Bowden will identify the species.

Dr. Bowden has been more and more involved in the continued promotion of the eTick website and app. As one of only a handful of arachnologists in Atlantic Canada, his involvement in helping to identify ticks that are reported is crucial to raising awareness and building confidence in the app.

While ticks are more often seen on the mainland, ticks can be encountered on the island, particularly from spring to fall, said Dr. Bowden.

"Climate change is driving black-legged ticks rapidly northward at a rate of about 48 km per year," said Dr. Bowden.

Through Ticknet.ca, Dr. Bowden hired 2 students —to conduct "tick dragging" along ten transects (frequently used walking trails) - five in western Newfoundland and five on the east coast of the island.

"They walk on commonly used paths and drag a flannel cloth along the top of grasses," he said, adding the program has been in effect for two years so far. "The good news is they haven't collected a single black-legged tick — yet."

As Mr. Westcott found out in his research, one of the reasons the ticks aren't prevalent in Newfoundland is because the winters are longer. But that's changing. Which is why it's so important that members of the public, veterinarians and doctors contribute data to the eTick app/website.

"The more records, the more accurate the models for where we might see them in the future," said Dr. Bowden.