A group of scientists studying the global impact of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries will refocus its efforts on regional impacts following the release of their latest study.

The report says climate change is affecting the world’s oceans, marine ecosystems, biodiversity and fisheries that feed millions of people globally – and that we can help prepare for and adapt to the changes ahead by anticipating it's impacts.

Dr. Tyler Eddy, a research scientist with the Marine Institute’s Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research (CFER), is the lead author of the report.

The report uses state-of-the-art models to project the impact of warming waters and changing ocean conditions on marine ecosystems.  

Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections is available today, Monday, March 3, in the journal Earth’s Future.

Dr. Eddy’s co-authors include Dr. Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, a post-doctoral fellow at the Marine Institute, and 35 scientists from 27 institutions in 10 countries.

‘Deeper dive’

The latest study continues the work of a July 2024 report for the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization that showed declines in exploitable fish biomass due to warming temperatures and changing ocean environments for marine ecosystems.

1. Eddysays the work is a deeper dive into last summer’s report, and it takes a closer look at how global climate-change projections relate to country and fisheries management level scales.

“Our latest study highlights that we need regional-scale models to be able to more accurately account for the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries in regions, such as Newfoundland and Labrador," he said. "Our dynamic ecosystems are already being affected by climate change through shifts in productivity to key fisheries species, such as snow crab and lobster. We expect more changes moving forward, and it is important to have accurate projections to allow fisheries and management to adapt.”

Dr. Eddy will present the study findings at conferences and workshops this spring, including a keynote speech to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Working Group on Integrative, Physical-biological and Ecosystem Modelling in April.

Declines and increases

The report says the scientists found key differences in climate-change projections of ocean biomass between global and regional models.

In some cases, both global and regional models projected biomass declines, while in others the global models suggested a decline and regional models indicated an increase.

“Present understanding of climate change impacts on the world’s oceans based on global models indicates a five per cent loss in animal biomass with every one degree Celsius that the planet warms,” the report states.

Drs. Eddy and Bryndum-Buchholz are also co-ordinators with the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project, which is contributing to climate change projections for the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project is a network of global marine ecosystems modellers and researchers working with the Food and Agriculture Organization to project the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world using state-of-the art numerical models.

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For more information, please contact Moira Baird, communications, Marine Institute, at mc.baird@mi.mun.ca or 709-330-3918, or contact Dr. Tyler Eddy at tyler.eddy@mi.mun.ca.