Genetic Drift is stochastic q [unpredictable,
random]
(cf. deterministic q [predictable,
due to selection, mutation, and (or) migration]
Sewall Wright (1889 - 1988): "Evolution and the Genetics of Populations" (1931)
Stochastic q >
deterministic q in small populations:
allele
frequencies
"drift" more in 'smaller' than 'larger'
populations
Drift
most noticeable if s ≈ 0,
and (or) N small (< 10) such that N ≈ 1/s
Wright - Fisher Model for haploid
organisms,
finite size N (or 2N ~ diploid), discrete
generations [NS 02-01smc]
q drifts between
generations (variation decreases within
populations over time);
eventually,
any
allele lost (q = 0) or fixed (q = 1)
[all alleles lost, except one]
Ex: Matlab model of Cepaea nemoralis snails
q drifts among
populations (variance increases among
populations over time) [NS
02-02smc]
eventually,
all fixed for one or another allele
**=> Variation 'fixed' or 'lost' & populations diverge due to chance <=**
Evolutionary
significance
"Gambler's Dilemma" : if you play long enough, you
win or lose everything
All populations finite: many very small,
somewhere or sometime
Evolution
occurs
on vast time scales: "one in a million chance" a
rate (or certainty)
Reproductive
success
of individuals in variable: 0, 1, 2 ... / parent
What happens in really long run?
Effective Population Size (Ne)
size of 'ideal' population Nexp with
same evolutionary behavior as 'real'
population with Nobs
same genetic variation
(measured as Hobs)
same inbreeding
coefficient F [see derivation]
same 'genetic drift' (measured as genetic
variance)
in any single generation σ2 =
(pq)/2N
- over time t:
approximately, number of breeding individuals in local population
Consider four special cases where Ne << Nobs [observed 'count' of individuals]:
(1) Unequal sex ratio
Ne = (4)(Nm)(Nf)
/ (Nm + Nf) [see derivation]
where Nm & Nf = counts
of breeding males & females, respectively
"harem" structures in mammals (Nm << Nf)
Ex.: if Nm = 1 "Alpha Male"
and Nf = 200
then Ne =
(4)(1)(200)/(1 + 200) ≈ 4
Single "Alpha" male elephant seal (Mirounga)
does almost all breeding
[NS 02-04]
[Elephant
seals
have very low genetic variation]
eusocial (colonial)
insects like ants & bees (Nf
<< Nm)
Ex.: if Nf = 1 "Queen"
and Nm= 1,000 drones
then Ne =
(4)(1)(1,000)/(1 + 1,000) ≈ 4
Hives
=
very small families
(2) Unequal
reproductive success
In stable population, Noffspring / parent = 1
"Random" reproduction follows Poisson
distribution (N = 1 1):
Characteristics: = σ2 ; if = 1, σ2 = σ
~ 1/3 of (female) parents have 0, ~1/3 have 1,
~1/3 have 2 or more
N |
σ | Ne = | Reproductive strategy |
1 |
1 |
Nobs |
Random breeding
success |
1 |
0 |
2x Nobs |
A conservation
strategy |
1 |
> 1 |
< Nobs | K-strategy, as in Homo |
1 |
>>
1 |
<< Nobs | r-strategy, as in Gadus |
Conservation
strategy: All animals bred equally, gene pool conserved
K-strategy:
keep N constant near carrying capacity (K)
by investing parental care
r-strategy: maximize success with high
reproductive rate (r), little parental
investment
(3) Population size variation over time
Ne = harmonic mean of N = inverse of
arithmetic mean of inverses
[much closer to smallest value
in series]
n
Ne = n / [ Σ(1/Ni)
] where Ni = pop size in
i th generation
i=1
Populations
exist in fluctuating environments:
Population
numbers unstable over (very) long periods of time:
101~2 forest fire , 102~3 flood , 10-4
ice age
Ex.: if typical N = 1,000,000 & every
100th generation 'bottlenecks' to N = 10 :
then Ne = (100) / [(99)(10-6)
+ (1)(1/10)]
100 / [10-4 + 10-1] 100 / 0.1 = 1,000 [HOMEWORK]
Founder Effect & Bottlenecks:
Populations started by (very) small number of
individuals,
or
undergo
dramatic reduction
in size [NS 02-03]
Ex.: Founder origin of Newfoundland
moose (Alces):
2
bulls
+ 2 cows introduced at Howley in 1904
[1
bull
+ 1 cow at Gander in 1878 didn't succeed].
Ex.: Bottlenecks
in population cycles: Hudson Bay Co.
trapping records (Elton 1925)
Population densities of arctic lynx, hare,
muskrat cycle over several orders of magnitude
Does Lynx cycle "chase"
hare cycle ?
(4) Non-uniform
population dispersion
Ne = (4π)ẟσ2
Ex.:
In old-field Deer Mice (Peromyscus maniculatus),
ẟ = 6 / 104 m-2, σ
= 114 m, so σ2
= 1.3 x 104 m2
Ne
= 98 / wild "neighborhood"
[cf: Canadian Rules football field
= 6 x 103 m2: ẟ
= 3.4 mice / field ]
cf. Mus mice in barns at 4X density
& 1/10 dispersion: Ne =
4
Effect of drift on genetic variation in populations
Larger
populations
more
variable (higher H) than smaller
if s = 0: Heterozygosity
(H) reflects balance
between
loss of alleles
by drift and replacement by mutation
The Neutral
Equation: H = (4Neµ) / (4Neµ +
1)
Ex.: if µ = 10-6 & Ne
= 106 then Neµ = 1 and
Hexp = (4)/(4 + 1) = 0.80
But for protein
electrophoretic data, typical Hobs
0.20 which suggests Ne
105
=>
Natural populations have much
smaller Ne than observed Nc
count
Stochastic effects may often be more important than deterministic
processes in evolution.