In spite of the severity of this trend there is little likelihood that the trend will reverse itself soon. We have already established a fertility rate amongst the lowest in the world, a continuous decline in the number of live births and high rates of out-migration, and since the last wave of immigrants from Ireland in the late 18^th century the province has not been a major recipient of immigrants.  From the period 1956 to 1993 Statistics Canada[9] reports that Newfoundland has consistently captured only around three percent of immigrants to Canada and that it is evident that many of the immigrants to Newfoundland stay for a relatively brief period before moving to larger population centres in Canada. 

Teacher Retirement Trends             One of the best indicators of demand is the number of teachers who are eligible for retirement.  A close look at the age distribution of the teachers in Newfoundland and Labrador shows large cohorts that are currently between the ages of 45 to 49 (Education Statistics 2000-2001, p. 63).  Many of the teachers who would have been in the 50 plus category have recently retired; taking advantage of newly negotiated early retirement options.  Assuming that there are no changes in the retirement options available to teachers, and teachers continue to opt for retirement as soon as they are eligible for a full pension, over 40 percent (2,789) of the current teacher population will be eligible for retirement over the next decade (Education Statistics 2000-2001, p. 63).  There is no way of predicting the exact number that will retire and data concerning the exact number that will have reached full pension eligibility is difficult to access.  However, data from Education Statistics 2000-2001 indicates that just over 2,400 teachers have 20 or more years of teaching experience (p. 62) – all of these individuals will be eligible for a full pension within the next ten years.  Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that approximately 2,500 teachers will retire over the coming decade, especially since the trend these days is for teachers to retire as soon as they reach full pension eligibility. 

With these older cohorts being considerably larger than the cohorts between the ages of 20-29 and 30-39 (Educational Statistics 2000-2001, p. 63) it would seem logical to assume that the future demand for teachers will increase above recent levels in order to replace the larger cohort that retires.  But, in Newfoundland and Labrador, unlike in many other parts of the country, the general population is decreasing annually and student enrolments are paralleling this general trend.  If this trend continues, and at this time there is no reason to think that it will not, then the overall demand for teachers in this province will not be as pronounced as if the population were more stable.  The model used by the Ministerial Panel on the Delivery of Education (2000), projects that the number of teachers will have dropped from the current 6,300 to around 5,000 by the 2005-06 school year and to around 4,000 by the year 2010-2011. With approximately 2,500 teachers eligible to retire during that time period it is obvious that the overall demand for new teachers will not be high.

Measures of Teacher Demand

Perhaps the single best measure of teacher demand is to listen to the reports and views of the practitioners who are working in the schools and school districts on a day-to-day basis.  It was known from the beginning of the research that it would not be enough to simply look at the demographics, and it was imperative that educators in the field be given a chance to describe their experiences.  In sharp contrast to what one might expect after examining the demographic data, there was widespread concern expressed by the Directors of Education and the Assistant Directors of Personnel that there were some serious shortages developing, particularly in rural and remote regions of the province (e.g. Labrador coast, the northern peninsula and the south coast), and in certain subject areas (e.g. administration, guidance, mathematics, chemistry, physics, special education and French).  One of the clearest points to emerge from this phase of the research is that the demand for teachers varies from one area of specialization to another, as well as from one location to another. Many of these administrators expressed concern that they were experiencing serious difficulties staffing their schools with qualified teachers and they were concerned that the situation was deteriorating rather then improving. This comment by one of the director’s summed up the view of most.

I can recall people coming in very heavily qualified in certain disciplines.  It wasn’t unusual to see a real strong Chemistry major applying for a job with 10-15 courses in Chemistry or a real strong Math or a real strong Physics kind of person. My sense is, we’re not seeing the same number of these heavily qualified....applying for the profession.  I don’t know if we’re losing them to other fields but we’re not getting that depth of scholarship in a given area like Chemistry, for example, or Math and that’s a real worry for me.  We still have it in English or Literature because there seems to be more of those but I don’t see it on the Science side.  I don’t see them coming in and that worries me.

Comments like this one led the investigators to examine teacher demand by looking at the areas of specialization as well as local geography.

Areas of Specializations

Due to the eclectic nature of teaching assignments, the fact that teaching assignments change from year to year, and the manner in which the data is currently collected, it is difficult to predict precisely what the teacher demand will be in a particular subject areas for a given period of time.  Also, categorizing educators in terms of what they teach is not an easy task because most teachers teach more that one subject, or take on some administrative tasks (e.g. administrative appointment, department head, guidance, etc.) in addition to teaching.  Therefore, the number of teachers who teach a particular subject, for example English, is a much larger number than the number of the teachers who are primarily English teachers.  The former may teach only one class of English; the latter may teach only English.  Nevertheless, by looking at the number of teachers who have in excess of 25 years teaching experience and who are assigned subject teaching duties in the secondary school system (where the demand appears to be highest), we can get an indication of the subjects where the demand might exist in the coming years. 

There are a significant number of teachers currently teaching in the areas of mathematics (N = 680), science (N = 580), English (N= 720), French (N=123) and social studies (N =627) who are scheduled to retire within the next five years.   Obviously, with the province’s declining enrolments there will not be a need to replace all of these teachers.  However, there will certainly be jobs for some new teachers.   There is evidence to show that replacing teachers in the areas of language arts and social studies will not be a problem because the vast majority of prospective teachers enrolled in the Faculty of Education, and teachers who are in the substitute teacher pool, have training in those areas (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001).  The numbers do seem to support the belief though that there will be difficulties in the areas of mathematics and science, simply because there does not exist a pool of teachers who are qualified in those areas waiting to enter the profession (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001).  Nor are there large numbers of students with training in these areas entering the Faculty of Education.  An analysis of the enrolment figures for the Faculty of Education for the 2000-2001 academic year shows less that a dozen applicants in the area of mathematics and less than 50 in the sciences (Final Report Admissions Committee 2001). 

There were also a number of concerns expressed about the ability to meet the demand for teachers required in the post-degree areas of school administration, special education and guidance.  While many are trained in the areas of administration and special education indications are that this is not a position that they desire to work in at this time (Dibbon and Sheppard, 2001).  In these instances the issue is not one of a lack of supply but one where the job itself is unattractive.

School Administration

There was considerable concern expressed about the number and quality of applicants for administrative positions.  Representatives for each of the districts indicated that an inadequate compensation package combined with the increased responsibilities of the job (e.g. dealing with school councils) was a deterrent and prevented many potentially strong candidates from even applying.   Directors referred to instances where teachers had told them directly that the job just wasn’t worth the hassle for the little extra compensation.  They also referred to administrative vacancies that couldn’t be filled because there were no suitable applicants, and in rural areas of the province some Directors indicated that they had to approach teachers directly and ask them to accept an administrative appointment on a trial basis.

Administrators, in particular, are a concern of mine because in the past summer we advertised some administrative postings that say 10 years ago you would have had 15-20 teachers competing for, and this past summer we had to pick up the phone and call people – we never had to do that before.

Since school administrators typically advance to the position through the route of classroom teacher, it is difficult to imagine that there is a supply problem.  In 1999 there were just over 6,200 teachers employed in the province.  This is a fairly large pool from which to develop and nurture future administrators, however, at the present time there are few teachers who aspire to be school administrators and as a result the demand is not being met.

With over half (334 out of 594) of the current school administrators eligible for retirement in the next ten years (Educationl Statistics, 2001), school districts must be assured that they will have an adequate pool of applicants from which to choose future school administrators.  Until recently there has not been a problem attracting well-qualified administrators, but at this time it appears as if quality is a very real concern.  Fortunately for districts, this is one area where they have the capacity to intervene and solve their own problems.  At this time, districts need leadership development programs to identify and develop future leaders by linking them with mentors and providing opportunities for them to practice and refine their leadership skills.  Only by investing in this sort of training and development can districts be confident of an adequate pool from which to choose.

The other major issue is providing an adequate compensation package for administrators[10].   Changing the package to one that will assist in attracting the best candidates is another issue, one that has implications for collective bargaining and cannot be solved solely by the employer.  In any event if the position is no longer attractive to teachers because of influences such as increased time commitments, and a poor remuneration package, then the stakeholders must work collectively to find a solution to what appears to be problem with workload more so then supply. 

With high numbers of current principals eligible to retire within the next decade there will be a high demand for school administrators.  An analysis of the Educational Staff Records for the 1999-2000 school year revealed that there were 214 teachers currently employed in the school system who expressed an interest in working in school administration sometime within the next two years and another 178 teachers indicated they were interested in beginning a graduate degree in educational administration sometime in the next five years.   There is no way of knowing anything about the quality of these candidates or the conditions under which they will allow themselves to compete for a school administrator position.  However, we can assume that there will be a fairly consistent pool of candidates from which to hire administrators, if the situation is right.

Special Education

The area of special education is another area that deserves considerable attention at this time.  Reports from the field indicate that the attrition rates for special education teachers are higher than for all other teachers.  In fact, many of the district office personnel feel that special education is becoming a gateway degree for many teachers wanting to gain access to other positions in the school system.  Since special education is a post-degree program, the teachers who graduate with this qualification also hold other qualifications.  Consequently, they use the special education degree to procure their initial appointment and then within a couple of years transfer to a regular classroom position.  Under normal circumstances this would not be an undesirable situation.  However, at this point in time there are not enough qualified special education teachers waiting to replace them. 

One thing I am finding is that special education teachers, especially the ones dealing with severely challenged children are becoming burned out. . . .There are a number of special education teachers. . . .who really would welcome an opportunity, and are seeking an opportunity to move out into the so-called regular stream.  Now that creates a situation in our district because we are saying to these people we have a supply issue, so we can’t let you go out.  You have to stay [in the special education class] and that is not a good situation (Director of Education).

According to the Education Statistics Report for the school year 1999-2000 there were approximately 900 positions in the school system that required a special education qualification.  However, an analysis of the Education Staff Records for the same year indicates that there were only 700 teachers with a special education degree.  Since we know from the interviews with the Director’s that not all of these teachers are teaching special education, it is obvious that well over 200 teachers are currently teaching special education without the required qualifications.   Many of these are working to complete their special education degree; some are people who managed to get a job before they finished their program and others have enrolled in the special education program as one of the conditions of employment.  Any way you shape it, there are too many teachers teaching special education without a full knowledge of the area.  This in itself indicates that there is a high demand for teachers with special education qualifications, and if current trends continue then the demand will continue to exceed the supply for special education teachers.  This appears to be an area of opportunity for new teachers if they are mobile and willing to relocate. Of course, not all of them are – this is one of the reasons there are still qualified special education teachers in the substitute teacher pool. 

Guidance

Many of the directors and assistant directors identified guidance as an area where shortages were beginning to emerge.  With a recent change in policy that makes it possible for a school district to reduce their ratio of guidance counselors to students from 1:1000 to 1:500 the demand for guidance counselors could increase substantially over the next couple of years.  Therefore guidance could also be an area of opportunity for teachers who are considering graduate studies.  Analysis of the Educational Staff Records for the 1999-2000 school year indicated that there were approximately 300 teachers who indicated that they intended to begin a graduate program in guidance within the next five years.  If the Faculty of Education is prepared to admit these people into their program it should help to alleviate any shortage in that area.

Geographical Areas

It has become increasingly clear in recent years that schools in certain parts of the province, notably rural and remote regions, are experiencing much greater difficulty in attracting qualified applicants for teaching positions.  For example, in some areas of coastal Labrador, there were still positions unfilled at the beginning of this school year (2000-2001) and it is common practice to receive only one or two qualified applicants for many positions in remote communities.  In contrast, a similar position in one of the more urban areas of the province could attract well over 200 applicants.  The situation in the remote areas of the province is becoming more and more critical and the provincial government has just recently announced an additional  $5,000 income supplement, similar to one approved for nurses, for teachers in isolated coastal Labrador communities.

The difficulty of attracting teachers to rural and remote communities is not restricted just to Labrador.  There were numerous reports of schools located within a one or two hour drive from a major urban center experiencing similar difficulties, especially for the subject areas where the demand is high.  However, for the most part the situation in the larger urban centers is not nearly as acute.  It is well known in Newfoundland that many teachers gravitate towards the urban centers and once they get a full-time position in these communities they usually stay for a while.     

Traditionally in Newfoundland and Labrador, many teachers would take an initial teaching assignment in one of the rural or remote areas of the province in order to gain teaching experience, as positions in the urban centres usually went to teachers with more experience.  Sometimes these teachers would stay in the rural community for their whole career and others would leave after one or two years.  In any event, under this scenario it was possible to staff these schools with qualified teachers, even if the turnover was high.  Today, because of other opportunities in or near urban communities in the province and new opportunities that appear to be more economically competitive in other regions of the country and the world in general, new teachers aren’t as willing to follow the same career patterns.  As a result, it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract teachers to rural and remote regions of the province, especially on the Labrador coast and small communities along the northern peninsula and the south coast.  Also, as more of the teachers with a specialization in the areas of high demand (e.g. mathematics, chemistry etc.) reach retirement age, the situation is likely to worsen.

Substitute Teacher Availability

Since not all schools in the province have access to a large pool from which to draw substitute teachers, there are varying degrees of difficulty in filling these positions. When asked if they experienced much difficulty finding substitute teachers to fill in for their regular teachers on a day-to-day basis, over 50% of the administrators indicated getting a substitute is a challenge every now and then and over 20% indicated that it is a problem frequently or all of the time.  Only 25 % of respondents indicated that it was not a problem in their school.  

When type of community was used to distinguish the pattern of responses, it was clear that finding a substitute teacher was more challenging in rural parts of the province as 80% of rural schools indicated that they experienced difficulties at least “every now and then”.  While acknowledging that some urban schools do experience difficulties obtaining substitutes, only 9% of the 34 urban schools indicated that difficulty in getting a substitute was experienced “frequently”.  In fact, 91% of 34 urban responses were in either the “every now and then” or “hardly ever” categories.

The analysis also showed that some regions of the province experienced more difficulty than others when it came to retaining the services of a substitute teacher.  Administrators in Districts One and Two and parts of Four and Five experienced much greater difficulty finding substitutes then their counterparts in other districts.  In fact, 83% of the schools in District One and 55% of the schools in District Two report difficulty "all the time" or "frequently".  No one in either of these two districts indicated that locating a substitute was  "hardly ever a difficulty”.

With the exception of certain parts of District Four and Five, the other districts do not appear to be experiencing the same degree of difficulties as District One and District Two.  This is not to indicate that no problems exist in the other districts, only the problem does not appear to be quite as severe.  The comment by one administrator that “the scarcity of substitute teachers is a very serious matter for the schools that face the problem” reflects the opinions expressed by many who were interviewed. 

Conclusion

The truth behind the reputed shortage of teachers is that there is no overall teacher shortage in the province of Newfoundland at the current time, and if the current trends in the number of live births, the total fertility rate, the number of children entering school, and out-migration don’t reverse themselves soon - then an overall shortage is not likely to develop in the near future.  Unfortunately, there is very little reason to think that these trends will reverse themselves or even level off in the near future. With fewer children entering school and projections that show the student population will decrease in excess of 30% over the next decade, the teaching population is also likely to decrease proportionally, unless there are policy changes by the government.   Even with high numbers of teachers scheduled to retire over the next decade, if the Faculty of Education continues to graduate teachers at the current rates, these new teachers combined with those in the substitute teacher pool will be sufficient to meet future demand.

But, we cannot become complacent just because the numbers indicate there will be enough bodies to sit at the teacher’s desks.   To ensure a teaching force of quality, which has to be the overriding goal of policy-makers, it is not acceptable to have teachers teaching students in areas for which they are not fully qualified. However, unless the Faculty of Education can attract students who have degrees in the areas of highest demand there will be a problem supplying teachers with these specialties.  Similarly, unless rural districts and communities can make life in a small community attractive for new teachers then their difficulties attracting and retaining new teachers to these locations are likely to persist.  Rural communities attempting to attract and retain other professionals, particularly those in the health care sector, are also facing this challenge.

Achieving a balance in the areas of specialization and recruiting qualified teachers to work in rural and remote communities are very real problems – problems that probably won’t be solved if policy-makers continue to act within the parameters of existing legislation.  More radical solutions are therefore required.  These solutions are likely to be expensive and may well prove to be unpopular with many groups within the political and education community in the province.  Without a doubt, they will include a consideration of how young people can best learn in the absence of traditional classroom teaching.

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