2016 Forecast of Prime Economic Indicators

Real GDP	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	Residental Unit Sales	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-1.78%	-1.77%	-1.76%		-4.00%	-3.43%	-2.86%
Employment	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	Housing Starts	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-1.19%	-1.18%	-1.18%		-4.78%	-4.00%	-3.20%
Hours Worked	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	Housing Prices	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-1.16%	-0.97%	-0.78%		-7.90%	-7.79%	-7.67%
Hourly Wage	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price	CPI	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	-1.16%	-1.07%	-0.98%		2.16%	2.29%	2.42%
				** All percentage values in this table represent annual growth rates for the year 2016 **
Retail Sales	Low Price	Benchmark Price	High Price
	1.31%	1.44%	1.57%

 

Key:

Low Price	The Low Price of $39.76 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The Low Price respesents a monthly price of $10 less than the forecasted Benchmark Price.
Benchmark Price	The Benchmark Price of $43.37 is the average monthly Brent spot price provided by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the year 2016. The forecasted monthly Brent spot price is also provided by the EIA.
High Price	The High Price of $46.43 is calculated using the EIA's monthly Brent spot price forecast. The High Price represents a monthly price of $10 more than the forecasted Benchmark Price.

 

This forecast was computed using a VAR model with Oil Price and Oil Production as exogenous variables. Values for the economic indicators are obtained from CANSIM (series numbers are available upon request). Residential Unit Sales and Housing Price were obtained from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). All values are nominal except Real GDP. Forecasts assume monthly Oil Production to be approximately 5,917,128 bbls for 2016 and uses complete data as of August 31st, 2016.