Ascertainment
Bias in a determination of the Primary
Sex Ratio:
a classroom demonstration
The Primary
Sex Ratio is the ratio of males to females
in a population: it is expected to be 1:1. One
possible way to count this is to ask a group of people how
many brothers and sisters are in their families (including
themselves). For example, n = 57 women in Biol2250
were asked to give the counts for their families, with the
results as reported above. The ratio of male : female
is heavily skewed towards women, almost 2:1 [to be
precise, 1.88:1] instead of the expected 1:1.
Why? A census limited to women is
guaranteed to include a large number of women (n = 11
out of 57 respondents) that are "only children" (one
girl, no boys), and also a number of women from larger
all-girl families (a further 12 respondents). Such a census
also excludes the reciprocal family types, those with single
or all-boy makeup. The result is an ascertainment bias,
a mismeasurement of a phenomenon by an error in which the
measurement is made. One correction is to exclude all
respondents with no brothers [first four lines], which in
these data would give a male : female ratio of 50:56.
A bias in the other direction is expected from a census
limited to men. Another correction is to exclude the sister
reporting the count (the proband), which means
subtracting one sister from each line and redoing the math:
the calculation is left as an exercise for the student.
Homework:
Suppose the classroom measurement of the primary sex ratio
were done for all undergraduates in the Department of Biology,
irrespective of gender. Would you expect a 1:1 ratio?
Why or why not? Hint: suppose you made this count at
the Royal Military College.