Source: Human Resources Development Canada, 1994

¹ Public colleges and universities (undergraduates).

² Participation by 18-24 year-olds as a percentage of the general population, 18-24 years old.

³ Actual percentages are shown for 1971-72 and 1990-91.

⁴ Percentages are averaged over intervals of two academic years from 1972-73 to 1989-90

R² = .2152 (Male Model)

R² = .2233 (Female Model)

R² = .2246 (Integrated Model)

shown in the extended integrated model analysed above to be statistically significant with participation were generally enhanced through the effects of indirect analysis. That is, the size of the total effects in nearly all cases was bigger than the for direct effects indicating support for the general hypothesis that the exogenous variables were mediated by the intervening variables.

For some variables--attachment, value of education, and advanced mathematics--the total effects were substantially higher, relatively, than the direct effects. In the regression equation for the extended integrated model, the standardized coefficient (direct effect) for attachment, for example, was not statistically significant with participation. Through the mediating effects of the intervening variables, however, the β for total effect of the attachment variable was rendered statistically significant at the .05 level. The magnitude of the attachment-participation relationship was made twice as strong by the addition of the indirect effects. Similarly, the magnitude of the advanced mathematics- participation relationship doubled through the addition of indirect effects. In addition to attachment, three other variables changed status in terms of statistical significance through the total effects analysis, namely, region 2 , guidance, and learning style (see Table 3).

Findings from the series of interviews with youth, principals, and guidance counsellors in the K-12 education system, with principals and senior officials from the post-secondary system, and with staff from the Department of Education complemented the quantitative results from the survey data. Results from the interviews gave added weight to the influences of the variables found in the regression analyses to have statistically significant effects on post-secondary participation. For example, the importance of advanced mathematics to participation was confirmed by the principals and guidance counsellors, all of whom also said it was important for parents to have a high value for education because a positive attitude largely determined whether parents encouraged their children to attend university or one of the public colleges. And the nature of the barriers to participation that were identified in the regression analyses was similar to the kinds of barriers the stakeholders identified; the ma in impediments in their view being lack of money, meeting academic prerequisites, inadequate access to programs, negative family influences, and an encumbering attachment to home and community.

Generally, the hypotheses formulated for the study were supported by the findings from the data analyses. The effects of the independent variables on participation, both the background and intervening variables, also generally conformed to the theory reported in the literature.

With reference to the theoretical model, none of the effects of the personal variables was strongly associated with participation in post-secondary education. The effects of well-being were higher than the effects of gender, career plans, and learning style, but not to the extent where it could be generalized that a continuing sense of well-being is predictive of entry into post-secondary education. The extent to which family variables influenced participation was contingent on the value held for education in the home. Family size had little effect, but value of education had the third highest effect on participation of all the independent variables in the study. School variables on average were moderately related to participation. Guidance had a negligible influence and career information and advanced mathematics in the numerical analyses both had small effects. However, the interview results gave much more support to all three variables in the extent to which they were related to participation. Community variables generally had little or no effect on whether residents obtained higher education according to results from the survey data. Results from the interviews, however, indicated that the attachment variable was highly associated with participation for many students from small communities. Post-secondary administrators, principals, counsellors, and even several youth referred to the inhibiting effects on young people of not wanting to leave home. These respondents all regarded community attachment to be a significant influence in detracting young people from participating in post-secondary education.

Generally, the mediating effects of the intervening variables enhanced the effects of the background variables on participation. While the boosting effects were not large in substantive terms, the influence was in the direction hypothesized for them and as theorized in the literature. An ancillary question had been examined in the study as to whether the effects of the background and intervening variables on post-secondary participation differed between males and females. In general, the similarities between males and females were more apparent than the differences in all the analyses. In short, there were no substantial differences between males and females in the effects of the variables on participation.

In summary, the variables found to be most frequently associated with participation were academic achievement, barriers, value of education, advanced mathematics, academic attainment, and well-being. These six consistently had the biggest effects in the various analytical models used in the study. Results from the interviews held with various stakeholders supported the findings from the regression and path analyses and gave added weight to the influences of the variables found to be related to participation.

Several policy initiatives emanate from the study that if carried out would additively contribute to a more complete explanation of the predictive influences on post-secondary participation. For example, three of the variables found to be most influential, relatively, on participation--academic achievement, advanced mathematics, and academic attainment--are directly manipulable by the K-12 education system. The advanced mathematics variable is more open to policy change than the other two because it is a clearly defined part of the curriculum and is less intricate and nebulous than is achievement or attainment. However, in 1992, only a little more than 22% of Grade 12 students in the province were enroled in the third year advanced mathematics course. While this percentage was double the enrolment six years earlier, it was still quite low considering the course was available in more than 90% of all Newfoundland high schools. A way to begin increasing participation in post-secondary education, therefore, might be to increase the participation of high school seniors in the advanced mathematics courses (which could be a consequence of current high school curricula policy considerations).

The variable, value of education, is less within the control of the school but not outside its sphere of influence. Schools experience varying degrees of contact with parents and they generally know the family situations of their students, even in urban communities. Professional school personnel such as teachers, principals, counsellors, and others have an opportunity to enhance the esteem held for education in families where esteem is known to be low. Information obtained in the interviews clearly disclosed that many educators felt that some parents from their area placed a low value on education. This disregard resulted in children from these families neither completing high school nor continuing with their education if they did graduate. But, the anomaly also exists where the reverse is true in that youth from @ good @ families are known to complete high school, do well academically while there, are encouraged if not implored by their parents to continue their education, and have brothers or sisters who went into post-secondary education, yet opted not to attend after they, themselves, graduated. Why do such anomalies occur in families where education is demonstrably highly valued? The variable has much research potential but none was found that focused on the issue. Pending the research, the variable= s contribution to educational attainment theory remains unknown.

The barriers variable is similarly within the sphere of influence of the schools in terms of their capacity to inform. Both the quantitative and qualitative findings revealed that financial constraint was the main barrier that prevented many eligible high school graduates from enroling in post-secondary education. Despite recent revisions to it, many students believe that the Canada Student Loan program is inadequate to meet their financial needs, at a time when availability of a loan is becoming crucial to high school graduates in their decision to go on to further education. Yet, little research has been undertaken in Newfoundland about the effects of the student loan program on post-secondary participation. While the loan program was never meant to be other than a supplemental source of funding for students, it has evolved to where it is for many the only source of financing that enables them to enrol in and continue with university or college studies. New phenomena might be emerging, however, where a reduction in demand for student loans could occur. Many students reported they are hesitating to accumulate large debts to obtain higher education when there is no assurance they will find subsequent employment to repay them. Further, the number of students defaulting on their loans, reported in the public media as already high, might increase in the near future which could potentially have serious implications for future loan availability. These factors are in addition to a naturally occurring reduction in demand as secondary student populations decline further in the years ahead. The entire student loan program has recently undergone substantive changes which makes comprehensive research into the issue both timely and topical if loan accessibility, and thereby post-secondary education accessibility, is to be enhanced and maintained.

Other barriers such as lack of access to courses and programs, lack of career direction, and insufficient knowledge of occupations and educational options were also identified in the study as important impediments for many youth. Several of the post-secondary administrators said that general information was known about participation in post-secondary education in Newfoundland but that specifics were lacking on many of the pertinent factors believed to affect it. Variables such as guidance, career planning, and career information especially required more research. Some of the basic assumptions underlying present career education curricula may need to be examined. For example, the traditional focus of providing information on careers and educational options are based on the assumption that the more information students have, the better their decision-making capability about post-secondary participation. This assumption may only be partly valid; further theoretical perspectives yet unknown to program developers or which have not been given prominence in the career education literature need to be explored. Emphasis, for example, may need to be placed on the way students process the information that is already available or on their perceptions of the value of such information to their career decision-making.

With a few exceptions, the effects of the study variables on participation were in the direction that was expected and were generally similar to the findings of previous research. Further research to substantiate the effects of the variables would be desirable, but some indicators are already apparent which can generate changes that could lead to greater participation in post-secondary education. It is important that such change be made. The issue of participation in education generally has become more important in recent years because of the general economic restructuring that has occurred in industrialized countries where traditional sources of work have largely disappeared. There was a time in Newfoundland, for example, when many people were self-sufficient with a modest income. Outlets such as fishing, hunting, gardening, raising a few domestic cattle, wood-cutting, building one =s own home and carrying out one =s own maintenance could substitute for hard currency. Seasonal work in the Newfoundland construction industry, fishing, forestry, or mining industries, or in a metropolitan area on the mainland enabled many people to earn a reasonable living without long-term work. In the last decade, however, high unemployment in these traditional industries, combined with decreasing employment opportunities elsewhere in Canada, has left many Newfoundlanders, especially youth, without the traditional means of earning a living. The options for employment will be limited even with an education, but the conventional wisdom is that, as youth everywhere in the industrialized world, young people in Newfoundland will have no chance at all to compete for better-paying jobs without some formal education beyond high school. With severe economic conditions currently facing the province, educational participation is regarded as instrumental in the government's strategic economic plan that is expected to reshape the provincial economy. Higher education in particular is viewed as an important means of revitalizing the province's labour force and for creating new employment opportunities. If the theoretical relationship between education and economic development is valid, the sooner a change process can begin that is directed at enhancing present levels of participation in post-secondary education, the quicker could positive results be realized that would bring about corresponding desirable changes in the provincial economy.

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